Google trumps the CDC
I just read about an interesting development by Google. Based on people’s Google searches for terms like “flu” and “flu symptoms,” google.org/flutrends has interactive maps and charts that detect where flu outbreaks are occurring, practically in real time.
In a New York Times article published today:
Tests of the new Web tool from Google.org, the company’s philanthropic unit, suggest that it may be able to detect regional outbreaks of the flu a week to 10 days before they are reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Last February, Google recorded a spike in flu cases days before the CDC had information. According to today’s Google Flu Trends, New York state is currently experiencing low flu activity.
I’m curious about the accuracy of the Google statistics. How can computer software detect whether a person searching “flu symptoms” is in fact ill, or just a curious school kid writing a report about the flu. Or, if the person is indeed ill, how can a computer system know that the person actually has the flu, not a common cold?
CDC maps of flu trends take more time to report because they rely on data from health care providers and hospitals who have seen and diagnosed patients with the flu.
Even though I’m skeptical, Google seems to have been accurate so far.
The premise behind Google Flu Trends — what appears to be a fruitful marriage of mob behavior and medicine — has been validated by an unrelated study indicating that the data collected by Yahoo, Google’s main rival in Internet search, can also help with early detection of the flu.
“In theory, we could use this stream of information to learn about other disease trends as well,” said Dr. Philip M. Polgreen, assistant professor of medicine and epidemiology at theUniversity of Iowa and an author of the study based on Yahoo’s data.
I’d be interested to see if Google’s accuracy can handle the increased cases that will come with the height of flu season.
Google explains its methodology on its website, but it seems rather quaint and unscientific to me. Still, their information could reach more people and prove more beneficial. The CDC’s weekly flu reports are packed with numbers, charts and medical terms that are difficult to parse. Google presents its information in plain language and in an easy-to-navigate format.
Perhaps this is just where popular medicine is headed. After all, I know I can’t be the only one who self-diagnoses based on WebMD.